Published oil research skews bullish for now, but the bull case hinges almost entirely on Middle East tensions staying hot.
The dominant view across recent third-party research is that attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, and broader regional conflict keep a risk premium baked into Brent. One central-bank study goes further, noting futures markets now price a slower unwind of high oil prices through 2027–28 than previously expected — effectively a second energy supply shock. Some strategists are expressing this through energy equities to capture asymmetric upside if tensions escalate.
The contrarian camp argues the opposite: absent an Iran war, Brent and WTI would trade closer to $40/bbl, because global supply is ample and refinery outages are actually denting crude demand. A separate tactical read flags a failed rally and broken chart support as a short-term bearish signal, and one policy institute expects energy prices to partly reverse as the initial shock fades.
On refined products, researchers see European diesel tightness easing near-term, with a more structural call warning that today's fat refining margins are incentivizing a diesel glut within two years.