Published oil research is overwhelmingly bullish right now, and the reason is the Strait of Hormuz.
Across the research consensus this week, the dominant catalyst is disruption to Gulf shipping — Iranian attacks on tankers and Iran withholding its own export barrels. Several recently-published analyses add that refining capacity losses in the Middle East and Russia compound the shock, keeping diesel, jet fuel and retail pump prices abnormally wide even if crude flows partially normalize. Analysts also point to EIA inventory draws and depleted strategic reserves as removing the usual price buffer. One camp argues Q4 headline inflation will run "pretty darn punchy" largely because of crude, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller has cited expert consensus for oil staying elevated through 2027 given damaged infrastructure.
A contrarian thread disagrees on horizon, not direction: one published scenario sees Brent easing to $95 in late 2026 and $75 by 2027 if diplomacy holds — while conceding a $130–$150 tail if disruption drags on.