Published research is leaning bullish on crude, with most analysts arguing the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have locked in a persistent geopolitical risk premium that keeps Brent near $100.
The consensus view across recent research points to further escalation risk — including possible attacks on Saudi infrastructure like the East-West pipeline — holding that premium in place until a US-Iran deal lands. On WTI, one strand of analysis flags historically low speculative positioning, strong refinery margins, and shrinking crude inventories as cyclical supports into year-end, provided Hormuz flows stay constrained. Technical work suggests Brent is consolidating bullishly above $100, while WTI looks shakier unless it defends the $84.50–$88 zone.
Horizons split the room. Tactical and cyclical views mostly see prices well-supported for several quarters. Longer-dated forecasts diverge: some published research pencils in Brent averaging ~$95 through 2027, while others see it drifting back above $80 as the shock fades.
A contrarian thread argues recovering Gulf supply and Saudi price cuts are near-term bearish. On diesel, one bearish call expects strategic reserve releases and record refinery runs to crush crack spreads.