Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on oil, with the few bearish takes conditional on a Middle East de-escalation rather than base cases.
The dominant theme across recent analysis is supply disruption: Strait of Hormuz constraints, a stalled US-Iran track, and knock-on effects on tanker rates and refining. Several research notes flag energy prices already running well above prior assumptions, feeding inflation. One camp points to Brent touching $109 with upside risks reasserting, a widening prompt spread, tight refinery capacity, and only partial recovery of Saudi pipeline flows. A contrarian framing argues the true cost per barrel, including military protection, is closer to $200 — meaning headline prices understate tightness.
Analysts broadly see the supply shock as already baked into "higher for longer" central bank posture, making a near-term reversal unlikely without a geopolitical shift. Even a full Hormuz reopening, some argue, would only partially ease prices given underlying demand. Technically, WTI is described as holding a constructive setup above key $88 support.
Longer-term research points to non-OECD demand growth and rising Canadian output offsetting a projected US shale decline.