Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on oil, with only a small, conditional camp seeing downside.
The trigger, according to multiple research notes, is the collapse of US-Iran talks after Trump rejected Tehran's proposal on the Strait of Hormuz — killing near-term hopes of restored Gulf flows. Attacks on Saudi and regional energy infrastructure are adding to the supply risk premium.
One camp of analysts ties elevated crude directly to the inflation persistence the RBA is tracking. A more structural thread argues the case runs far longer — pointing to depleted strategic reserves, years of underinvestment, and a multi-decade commodity cycle that makes a return to $60/bbl look, in their words, "delusional." Consumer survey data on gasoline expectations is cited as evidence the supply-shock narrative is now entrenched.
Across horizons, researchers see Brent holding above $100 into next year, with forward contracts into 2027 drifting higher. Diesel and gasoline are flagged as staying bid on the same geopolitical exposure.
The dissenting view is narrow and conditional: some analysts sketch a path to WTI near $80 only if Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb reopen — an outcome they concede isn't currently in motion.