Published research is overwhelmingly bullish on oil, with most analysts expecting crude and refined product prices to stay elevated or climb higher — though a minority sees near-term relief for Brent as some supply comes back online.
The core driver cited across the research consensus is Middle East conflict, specifically disruption around the Strait of Hormuz constraining both crude exports and refinery output. One camp of analysts adds that tightening Chinese inventories, low strategic reserves, and rising shipping costs are compounding the squeeze.
Refined products look even tighter. Recent research notes Middle East diesel and gasoline exports are running at just 58% of pre-war levels, with Russian export restrictions keeping product markets strained even as crude partially recovers. A contrarian thread argues diesel is the real bottleneck heading into winter, with European reserves thin.
The apparent split on Brent is really a horizon story: some published views see near-term softening as exports recover, while the longer-term consensus warns of structural tightness building toward 2027.