Published research this week is overwhelmingly positioned for crude and refined products to stay elevated or push higher, with only one meaningful dissent — and even that view hedges itself near-term.
The dominant driver cited across analyst notes is the Middle East conflict, which has embedded a persistent risk premium into Brent and WTI. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, Houthi attacks on Saudi pipeline infrastructure, and constrained flows through key choke points are all in focus. Several research desks flag oil as a direct, unresolved upside risk to inflation, and some have raised multi-year forecasts to embed higher risk premiums through 2026–27. The published consensus sees Brent holding above $100 as long as supply risks persist, with one conditional scenario pointing to Q4 prices running $7–8 above current forecasts if flows stay constrained.
Refined products draw consistent bullish calls, with diesel targets floated at $6.50–$7.10/gallon on refinery outages and tight inventories.
The lone contrarian thread argues Brent averages near $80 in Q4 2026 on Middle East de-escalation — but the same view concedes prices are unlikely to break below $100 near-term.