Oil stayed the dominant macro story this week, with published research overwhelmingly pointing to "higher for longer" crude.
Most commentaries had WTI holding above $100 — one policy note flagged a settle near $102.50 — and Brent similarly sticky, with drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping risks, and unresolved Iran tensions cited as the drivers. Several energy desks raised their oil forecasts outright, with one framework suggesting Brent could run $7–8 above prior Q4 targets if Middle East flows stay disrupted. Diesel drew particular attention: projections ranged as high as $6.50–$7.10 a gallon in the US, with refining near 100% capacity and harvest demand adding pressure. Analysts tied this directly to stickier headline inflation and a harder path back to 2% for central banks.
The contrarian case — a drop toward $80 on de-escalation, which would pull CPI back quickly — remained a minority view, and late-week commentary largely reinforced the elevated-for-longer thesis rather than softening it.