Published research is leaning firmly bullish on crude and refined products, with only one contrarian tactical note calling for near-term softness as Saudi supply comes back online.
The dominant thread across recent research points to the Middle East — the Iran conflict and Houthi activity threatening the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb — as the core driver keeping supply constrained and prices elevated. A structural camp adds that chronic underinvestment in sustaining capital means supply growth will lag demand for years, with one lead-lag model cited as pointing to an uptrend running into 2028. Published cyclical targets put Brent around $105–107/bbl in Q4 2026; spot Brent has reportedly already touched ~$106.
Refined products look even tighter. Analysts note European diesel cracks above $80/bbl and jet fuel stocks at ARA hubs at their lowest since March 2020, with Russian refinery outages compounding Gulf disruptions. US gasoline and diesel are described as having a "grim" near-term outlook.
The lone bearish tactical view is conditional on Saudi restoration going smoothly — it doesn't contest the longer structural bull case.