Published research is overwhelmingly bullish on crude and refined products right now, and the reasoning centers on a physical supply shock, not sentiment.
Analysts across multiple recent notes point to the closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline as the trigger, with Dated Brent reportedly surging above $130/bbl as European refiners scramble for prompt barrels. Researchers describe extreme backwardation as a signal of immediate scarcity. A wider camp argues that restricted transits through the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining a structural deficit near 3 million barrels per day, with one contrarian view suggesting spot cargoes are effectively trading at $140–160/bbl once diesel crack spreads are included.
Diesel is flagged by several published notes as the epicenter of the squeeze, with European prices above $220/bbl and US distillate inventories at record lows heading into winter. US strategic reserves are also said to sit at their lowest since 1982.
On the outlook, the consensus splits between Brent forecasts averaging $90/bbl through 2026 and more aggressive $110/bbl targets, with a gradual normalization toward the high-$70s only expected by late 2027 as the risk premium fades.