Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with Brent above $100/bbl and WTI close behind.
The dominant thread across analysts points to Middle East supply disruption: Saudi output has fallen to its lowest level since the 1990s, and flows through both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb are severely constrained by US-Iran hostilities and Houthi activity, with no near-term ceasefire in sight. Several research desks also flag a notable return of Chinese buying, further tightening an already undersupplied market. One camp highlights that US inventories sit below their five-year range and positioning is not yet stretched, leaving room for the rally to extend. Recent notes warn of record diesel prices heading into harvest season, with crack spreads at abnormally wide levels.
On disagreements: the split is horizon, not direction. Some researchers note one-year forward Brent is priced in the $70s, and a contrarian long-run view argues the conflict is accelerating peak oil demand. Near-term downside calls are all conditional on de-escalation.