Published research is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with Brent and WTI trading around or above $100/bbl and most analysts pointing to further upside while Middle East tensions persist.
The near-universal catalyst cited across recent research: US–Iran military escalation, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. One analytical thread emphasizes that actual Saudi and Iraqi export volumes are running well below OPEC+ quotas due to security risks — meaning physical supply, not paper targets, is the binding constraint. Others argue thin global inventories and refinery product destruction deepen the squeeze, with the EIA already revising US diesel forecasts sharply higher through 2027. A longer-horizon view ties Asia-led demand growth to structural Brent support.
A contrarian minority disagrees on sustainability. Some recently published work argues $100+ oil "breaks stuff" economically and that surging Western Hemisphere production caps prices, forecasting a material decline through 2026 as the geopolitical premium fades. The split is really about horizon, not direction.