Oil markets are flashing broadly bullish, with published research this week overwhelmingly expecting crude and refined products to stay elevated on Middle East supply shocks.
The trigger: disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline after drone strikes, with Brent trading above $107 and WTI above $100. Multiple research desks argue the geopolitical risk premium is fully embedded and still building, with one estimate suggesting the Hormuz closure alone removed over 10% of global supply against multi-year-low inventories. The consensus view sees no near-term diplomatic offramp given the pipeline shutdowns, Houthi activity, and Iran conflict. One more cyclical call pegs Brent at $80 by late 2026 — conservative versus spot, but still directionally bullish.
Refined products look even tighter. Researchers flag gasoil and US diesel cracks at record highs, Gulf Coast refiners running at 98%, and Russian export bans compounding the squeeze — with further diesel pressure expected into harvest season.
The main dissent is on horizon: a contrarian thread argues diesel may be near its peak, and some see WTI easing post-US midterms if an Iran deal restores flows. A short-term technical pullback toward $95 is also flagged, but framed as a dip within a larger uptrend.