Published research this week is almost uniformly bullish on oil, with Brent flirting with — and in spots breaching — $100 a barrel and no meaningful contrary view on direction in the material we reviewed.
The dominant driver, analysts argue, is the escalating US-Iran conflict: US strikes on Iranian tankers, Iranian missile retaliation, and renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have injected a steep geopolitical risk premium. Layered on top, researchers point to genuinely tight physical fundamentals — persistent crude inventory draws, exceptionally low gasoline and distillate stocks, refinery runs at multi-year highs, and a steeply backwardated forward curve suggesting the market sees lasting tightness rather than a brief spike. One longer-dated thread argues damaged Gulf infrastructure will take years to repair even after hostilities ease.
On products, published views flag gasoline moving from roughly $3.85 to $4.15 a gallon and diesel outperforming, reportedly because a Houthi strike on a Saudi refinery created a refining bottleneck. A technical read cited in recent research points to a cup-and-handle breakout on Brent targeting $120.