Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with Brent pressing the $100/bbl mark and WTI close behind. Across the analyst notes surveyed, there is no meaningful near-term dissent — the only bearish view is confined to a post-conflict scenario well into the future.
The driver, researchers argue, is the escalating Middle East conflict: US strikes on Iranian tankers, Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are squeezing supply. One analytical camp highlights structural tightness on the demand side too — US strategic reserves sit at 40-year lows just as seasonal stockpiling begins. A widely-cited view puts the current supply deficit at 2–3 million barrels a day, arguing higher prices are now the main tool to curb demand since China can no longer absorb the shock as before.
Brent is already up more than 30% since hostilities began, per the published consensus, with some notes flagging a path to $120 WTI if Saudi cuts deepen. Constrained refining capacity — diesel especially — is amplifying product-level tightness.