Oil is set up bullishly on nearly every desk covering it, according to the current sweep of published research — with the US–Iran conflict and thin supply buffers doing the heavy lifting.
The dominant catalyst analysts point to is disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple research notes highlight Iranian crude exports stalled for a record seven weeks amid attacks on supertankers, and treat that geopolitical risk premium as the core price driver. A separate strand of research argues the setup is structural too: years of underinvestment have left refining capacity stretched, with 3-2-1 crack spreads near $63/bbl versus $25/bbl a year ago and European diesel above $200/bbl.
On demand, some recently published views flag rebounding Chinese consumption and low US stockpiles, while others warn US distillate inventories are at their lowest seasonal levels on record — with winter still ahead.
On crude, one camp sees Brent approaching $100, and another puts the odds of WTI clearing $115 by year-end near 31–32%. The consensus on refined products is even tighter: middle distillates look stretched into winter.