Crude oil research is leaning heavily bullish for the near and medium term, with only a lone long-horizon voice calling for gradual declines.
The dominant driver, according to the published research consensus, is the US–Iran military conflict and the threat it poses to Strait of Hormuz shipping. Multiple analyst notes point to a geopolitical risk premium and supply-disruption fears as the engine behind current strength. Technical work referenced this week adds confirmation: moving-average buy signals across timeframes, an emerging symmetrical triangle in Brent, and RSI readings in bullish territory. Some researchers also flag that US plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with Venezuelan crude add incremental demand. Others highlight that FOMC minutes show the Fed itself now treats Middle East conflict as a persistent inflation headwind.
Refined products may move even faster than crude, with diesel and middle-distillate cracks at record highs. Brent targets near $100 over the next 30 days appear in several notes. A contrarian long-run view argues OPEC+ supply fragmentation eventually pulls prices lower — a horizon call, not a real disagreement.