Published research this week leans strongly bullish on oil, with most analysts framing Brent above $90/bbl as underpinned by acute geopolitical supply risk centered on the Strait of Hormuz.
The consensus case, as laid out across recent research notes, rests on a tight cluster of catalysts: US strikes on Iranian assets, ongoing tanker attacks, and a near-shutdown of Hormuz — a chokepoint that normally carries 6–8 million barrels a day. Some analysts report war-risk insurance premiums at extreme highs, with commercial traffic through the strait running at just 7% of normal. Others argue $90 oil remains highly workable for producers and that demand is holding up despite elevated diesel prices. A separate thread of research flags diesel itself as a structural upside story, citing refining bottlenecks and Russia's diesel export ban now extended through September 2026.
A contrarian view pushes back tactically, arguing the market habitually overprices Middle East escalation and that any partial de-escalation could trigger sharp disinflation at the pump.