Oil whipsawed this week as traders juggled diplomacy against entrenched supply damage — and by Thursday, the published tone leaned firmly bullish again.
Early in the window, several research notes flagged downside pressure on Brent and WTI as Iran-Oman talks pointed to a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside milder-than-expected US sanctions and rising US crude inventories. One thread argued Brent could shed another $5–10 if diplomacy held.
By mid-to-late week, the published consensus shifted back toward higher prices. Multiple analysts raised Brent and WTI forecasts, citing waning odds of a US-Iran deal, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, Moscow's extended diesel export ban, and critically low strategic reserves. One technical read flagged an upside path toward the summer $102 highs; a more aggressive view floated $120–150 if supply risks compound.
Refined products stayed the tightest link — diesel, jet, and crack spreads were described as structurally squeezed, with US farm diesel pressing $5/gallon into harvest demand.