Crude oil is drawing a rare unanimous bullish read across published research this week, with supply shocks — not demand — doing the heavy lifting.
The central driver is the US-Iran conflict. Recent research notes Brent pushing toward $94/barrel as sanctions and a naval blockade have effectively halted Iranian exports, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stalling. A second shock is layered on top: analysts point to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and ports tightening global diesel markets and lifting refining margins to record levels.
One camp of researchers expects elevated prices to persist through year-end given Middle East uncertainty, with risks framed as tilted to the upside if the Iran standoff drags on. Others describe rising oil as a fresh macro risk factor, flagging that some investors are turning to oil ETFs as portfolio hedges.
On refined products, the published consensus singles out diesel — now at year-highs — as the most exposed leg. One multi-quarter path making the rounds pencils in a cyclical WTI peak near $92.9/bbl in Q2 2026 before moderating.