Published research this week leans firmly bullish on oil, with the debate centered on how far and how fast — not direction.
The dominant thread across recent analyst notes points to geopolitical supply risk around Iran: multiple research desks flag Strait of Hormuz tensions and tighter US sanctions enforcement as core drivers, with Brent's steep backwardation cited as evidence of real physical tightness. A separate camp of analysts emphasizes a global refinery capacity crunch — roughly 9% of capacity offline — driving diesel and gasoline cracks well above historical norms, with diesel-to-crude spreads reportedly at record highs. One published view notes speculative positioning in WTI is still light, leaving room for a catch-up move into the mid-$90s if catalysts hold.
On refined products, researchers argue European gasoline and diesel cracks stay elevated into year-end, supported by Russian export curbs and restrained Chinese flows, plus refinery outages heading into harvest and heating season.
Not all views align. One relative skeptic caps near-term crude in the high-$80s, arguing inventories are healthy enough to prevent a sustained spike toward $150. A contrarian long-horizon thread flags potential peak oil demand before 2030 on EV adoption and China's carbon targets — a strategic call, not a near-term rebuttal.