Oil markets ran hot all week, with published research overwhelmingly leaning bullish on crude and refined products.
Brent traded near $93–94 as analysts flagged a stack of supply threats: a stalled Strait of Hormuz, a US naval posture that has effectively halted Iranian exports, fresh sanctions targeting Iran's access to the global payment system, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Black Sea terminals. One desk floated a push into the mid-$90s if speculative funds re-engage; another modeled WTI rising toward roughly $93 by Q2 2026 before easing. A cyclical view framed oil as the next leg of a broader commodity supercycle.
Refined products looked even tighter. Researchers pointed to roughly 9% of global refining capacity offline, European gasoline and diesel cracks holding firm into winter, and Gulf Coast utilization near the ceiling — with diesel flagged as the most exposed.
Dissent was thin: one thread argued healthy inventories and OPEC spare capacity cap upside in the high $80s, and another noted peak demand could arrive before 2030.