Published research on oil is leaning firmly bullish — with one notable caveat on the longer horizon.
The consensus across recently published research is that Brent and WTI stay elevated or push higher near-term. Analysts point to the US-Iran standoff and a contested Strait of Hormuz as the dominant driver, suppressing tanker traffic and keeping a geopolitical risk premium baked into prices. Several independent research notes cite restricted Hormuz flows, fading diplomatic prospects, and lower US crude and distillate inventories as reinforcing the squeeze.
A separate thread of research flags Russian refinery disruptions from Ukrainian drone strikes as tightening global diesel markets, pushing crack spreads to record highs. That makes refined products a standout even if crude itself stabilises. Researchers note Brent above $85–$91 already reflects much of this.
The contrarian view: one cyclical forecast sees WTI falling below $79 by next winter on seasonally weaker demand. Notably, the same research holds a tactical bullish view while Hormuz tensions persist — a horizon disagreement, not a directional one.