Published research on crude is running heavily bullish across near- and medium-term horizons, with only a small contrarian thread pushing back — and that pushback is confined to late 2026 and beyond.
The main driver, according to a broad consensus of recently published analysis, is geopolitical supply risk around the Strait of Hormuz. The US has declined to extend its ceasefire with Iran, talks are stuck, and fresh vessel attacks are stoking fears of a material disruption. Several research desks argue this is what keeps Brent above $90, with Saudi Arabia's rerouted exports seen as only a partial offset. Technical work cited in recent notes flags WTI reclaiming the $82–$83 pivot as constructive. A more extreme camp of analysts warns that a multi-month curtailment of Hormuz flows could push oil to $100–$150+.
On refined products, one cluster of research is bullish on diesel and gasoil, pointing to Russian refinery disruptions, export bans, and tight global middle-distillate stocks.
The contrarian view: a minority thread sees Brent averaging around $80/bbl by late 2026 into 2027 as flows normalize and Chinese demand softens — a horizon disagreement, not a direct clash with the near-term bulls.