Crude oil research is leaning firmly bullish right now — but a notable minority is calling the top.
The dominant view across recently published research is that the Strait of Hormuz disruption is the story: tanker attacks, the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, and halted vessel traffic are keeping a real risk premium in the price. Some analysts add that renewed fighting in Lebanon is compounding the geopolitical bid. A macro thread also notes that steepening yield curves have historically supported oil.
Brent is where the bullish consensus concentrates, with multiple research notes flagging support near or above $90/bbl, and one framing $70–$100 as the "new normal" for the foreseeable future. WTI draws bullish takes too, though one contrarian voice argues it's trading near resistance above average production costs.
The pushback: a smaller camp of analysts argues the Iran-conflict energy impulse has already peaked and should drag prices lower into early next year, citing US net-export status and a weakening broader energy complex. A separate long-dated view sees Dubai crude moderating out toward 2028 as Middle East disruption fades.
The split is really about timing — most bulls concede their case depends on Hormuz staying hot, which is exactly what the bears expect to unwind.