Published oil research is leaning uniformly bullish — but the story is about supply and geopolitics, not booming demand.
Researchers broadly argue crude prices stay elevated or push higher from here. The dominant thread points to Middle East risk, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, as the main upward force, with one camp of analysts noting that accumulated supply disruptions show no near-term sign of reversing.
A related view highlights that WTI is particularly exposed to Middle East shocks because the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve — historically a demand-side cushion — now sits at multi-decade lows. That, the argument goes, tilts price risk asymmetrically to the upside.
The most specific path in the recently-published research sees WTI rising from roughly $64 a barrel in Q2 2025 to about $93 by mid-2026, then easing back toward $75 by end-2027 as supply pressures fade and demand growth steadies.
The published views don't really conflict. They differ mainly on horizon: near-term risk premium now, cyclical upswing into 2026, strategic normalization after.