Published oil research is leaning firmly bullish, with the Strait of Hormuz doing most of the work.
The consensus across recently published research is that Brent, WTI, and refined products are biased higher, driven by stalled US-Iran talks and sharply reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts argue this geopolitical risk premium is now firmly embedded in the price.
Supporting the bull case: researchers point to tight global inventories amplifying the supply-route risk, and warn that strategic reserve drawdowns in the US and China can't substitute for physical barrels indefinitely. One recent note flags that the Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery tightens middle-distillate markets through at least end-August, boosting refined product margins. Technical work on WTI shows all major moving averages pointing up, though an RSI near 78 hints at overbought conditions short-term.
The dissenting views — a gradual decline case and a ~$80/$75 path for 2026-2027 — aren't structural bearish calls. They're explicitly conditional on Middle East de-escalation.