Published oil research this week leans firmly bullish, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption cited as the dominant driver — though a few dissenting voices push back.
The majority view across recently-published research is that persistent geopolitical risk keeps a supply premium in crude: analysts point to the Hormuz blockade, ongoing tanker incidents, and regional infrastructure attacks as reasons the premium sticks. One thread argues that any delay to an Iran deal will keep eroding global inventories through 2026, while another frames the Persian Gulf conflict as directly lifting energy input costs across the economy.
The pushback comes in two flavors. A structural bear case argues that peaking Chinese demand, faster EV adoption, and rising non-OPEC supply point crude back toward roughly $55/bbl — the US production cost floor. A softer contrarian read holds that physical markets show no real panic premium, so sideways-to-lower is the more likely path over coming months, with strong Chinese demand cushioning the downside.
One notable nuance: at least one published outlook stays bullish through end-2026 but flips bearish into 2027, contingent on an Iran peace deal unlocking new supply.