Published research this week leans bullish on crude, with the dominant view tying elevated prices to persistent Middle East supply risk — especially around the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts broadly argue that US-Iran tensions keep a meaningful risk premium baked into oil. One recent note points out that even with advanced Iran-Oman diplomatic talks, unresolved Hormuz shipping constraints reinforce upside risk, though a reported 9.1 million barrel build in US inventories offers some near-term drag. Another camp of researchers frames this as "structural" price strength, citing Patrick Harker's view that these supply shocks are not transient. Published forecasts point to Brent averaging around $85 in Q3, with OPEC+ quota increases so far existing only on paper.
A contrarian thread argues the opposite on a longer horizon: as supply rebalances and geopolitical risk fades, WTI could drift back near $69 through 2027. One cyclical view also flags a large speculative short position whose unwind could accelerate a spike, alongside depleted US and Chinese strategic reserves tightening physical supply.