Oil traded on a knife's edge this week as Strait of Hormuz headlines whipsawed prices in both directions.
Early in the week, researchers flagged an Iran-Oman arrangement restricting Hormuz transit for US and Israeli-linked vessels, with commentary arguing supply risk was underpriced — one thread even claimed real off-ship crude was already trading near $140. Others tied a sharp intraweek drop of roughly 10% to rumors of a US-Iran transit deal, arguing sustained de-escalation would push prices lower and relieve importer economies.
By late week, the published consensus leaned back toward elevated prices, with multiple analysts citing stalled negotiations, attacks on Saudi and Russian refinery infrastructure, and Yemen-linked risks. One cyclical view pegged Brent averaging $80 for the quarter; a separate forecast saw WTI peaking near $93 in Q2 2026 before easing.
Refined products drew their own bullish calls: diesel, gasoil, marine fuels and jet fuel outlooks were revised higher on tight distillate stocks, record exports, and European winter demand. Contrarian voices still see crude drifting below $70 longer-term as Chinese demand plateaus and non-OPEC supply builds.