Published oil research is leaning bullish, but the split is real — and it hinges on the Strait of Hormuz.
The dominant view across recently published research anchors on one catalyst: supply disruption risk at Hormuz. Analysts point to Iranian shipping restrictions, vessel attacks off Yemen, and stalled transit-deal hopes as the reason Brent and WTI are staying bid. One camp holds Brent averaging around $80 through Q3. Another projects WTI climbing toward roughly $93 at a Q2 2026 peak before easing to about $75. A parallel thread argues the geopolitical premium is spilling into refined products — diesel, gasoil, marine fuels — reinforced by European winter demand.
The bearish minority is substantive. Some recently published views see oil "well below $70" by year-end as geopolitical shocks fade. A more structural bear case targets around $55, citing peaking Chinese demand, surging North and South American supply, and waning OPEC leverage. A contrarian tactical thread argues that if a US/Iran Strait deal materializes, the premium unwinds fast.
Near-term bullish, longer-term contested.