Oil calls are unusually split right now, with most published research leaning bullish on crude but a meaningful contrarian camp betting on a sharp drop if diplomacy holds.
The bullish case, argued across several recent research notes, centers on Strait of Hormuz supply risk: an Iran-Oman arrangement restricting Gulf transit for ships from "hostile countries," Iranian strikes near the strait, and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. One analytical thread goes further, arguing real oil costs already sit well above spot and are being masked by strategic reserve releases.
The bearish camp reads the same facts differently. Some recently published views frame the Iran-Oman shipping deal as raising the odds of eased supply concerns, not tightening them, and note optimism around US-Iran talks is already pulling crude lower. One outright bearish take projects a reversion to $60–65 per barrel once hostilities end.
Refined products tell a separate story. Researchers point to elevated European diesel on Rhine bottlenecks and Russian export curbs, higher US farm diesel as Gulf Coast exports surge, and firm jet fuel — all supply and logistics driven rather than headline driven.