Oil forecasts are split, with published research leaning mildly bearish near-term but a competing camp arguing geopolitical supply risks will keep prices elevated.
The bearish case hinges on de-escalation. Several research notes this week argue Brent trends lower as markets look past US-Iran disruption risks, pointing to a sharper-than-expected drop in Chinese oil imports and possible structural demand erosion from electrification and coal-to-chemicals substitution. One analyst camp has exited energy positions and flags a potential return to $60–65 if the Iran conflict resolves. Broader forecaster consensus, per recent surveys, sees prices easing by year-end as Middle East tensions unwind, with the market comfortably supplied through 2027 if Gulf flows normalize.
The bullish thread argues Houthi escalation and unresolved US-Iran dynamics are tightening supply now. A contrarian strategic view frames deglobalization and structural supply-demand imbalances as long-run supports, with energy still feeding inflation.
The real disagreement isn't directional — it's whether de-escalation actually happens, and when.