Oil calls are sharply split right now, and the divide isn't just bull vs. bear — it's near-term vs. medium-term.
The bearish camp in recent research argues a structural supply glut is reasserting itself: Middle East "fear premiums" are deflating, US and Saudi storage is full, and demand is softening. Some analysts also read active SPR releases under the Trump administration as a deliberate price ceiling. A related thread points to optimism around a Strait of Hormuz deal as the dominant near-term force pulling prices below $80/bbl.
The bullish side of published research flags real upside if Bab al-Mandab closes or US–Iran tensions escalate, noting that depleted SPRs and commercial inventories leave prices unusually sensitive to any fresh shock. One tail-risk scenario floated in recent work sketches a spike toward $200/bbl if Gulf infrastructure is hit.
On horizon, a common view is tactically bullish (near-term upside to ~$89) but cyclically bearish (WTI drifting into the low $80s by year-end, mid-$50s to $70s beyond). A separate analytical thread argues distillate cracks stay elevated regardless of crude, given decade-low diesel and jet fuel inventories.