Oil analysts are sharply split right now, and there's no clean consensus on where crude goes from here.
One camp of published research leans bearish: Persian Gulf flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly 65% of pre-war levels, futures curves price Brent down toward $70–$75 over the next 12 months, and easing Middle East tensions should normalize supply. A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back hard — arguing Hormuz transit has actually slipped back toward prior lows, Houthi restrictions have effectively halved Saudi tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, Kazakhstan's CPC terminal faces fresh outages, and rerouting costs bake in a structural tightness premium. One bullish WTI forecast in circulation sees prices spiking to roughly $93 in Q2 2026 before settling higher.
Refined products tilt more bullish than crude itself. Researchers flag gasoil cracks at record highs on Russian export bans and Ukrainian refinery strikes, with US refinery utilization near 97% capping incremental output into heating season.
Brent is the most contested call on the board.