Oil in focus this week: geopolitics kept a bid under crude, but late-week research turned more two-sided as Strait of Hormuz flows partially recovered.
Early in the week, published research leaned firmly bullish. Brent was flagged above $90/bbl on renewed Middle East strikes, with one note citing a $93 print. Analysts pointed to record gasoil cracks, US commercial crude stocks at 2018 lows, and Red Sea rerouting as evidence physical markets remain tighter than headlines suggest. Diesel got particular attention: US refinery utilization near 97%, Russia's export ban, and drone strikes on Russian refineries were cited as reasons middle distillates stay squeezed into 2027.
By late week, a more mixed tone emerged. Multiple research threads argued Gulf flows have recovered to roughly 65% of pre-war levels, prediction markets were pricing a 5–6% drop on a reopening, and several central-bank-linked forecasts anchored Brent drifting toward $70–75 over 12 months. A longer-horizon contrarian view flagged chronic upstream underinvestment as a structural bull case into 2030.