Published research this week lands overwhelmingly bullish on oil, with near-universal agreement across analyst commentary that Brent and WTI are biased higher.
The dominant catalyst cited across the research consensus is geopolitical: US–Iran tensions, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and broader Middle East escalation. Layered on top, several recently-published notes flag a structural supply squeeze — US commercial crude inventories at their lowest since 2018, Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns running at an unsustainable pace, and refineries operating at 96% with thin product buffers. Some analysts argue positioning still leaves room for another leg toward $100/bbl, and one research thread points to September as a turning point once SPR releases end.
Refined products stand out. Researchers describe extreme tightness in gasoline and diesel, with inventories well below five-year lows, record-high gasoil crack spreads, and a global diesel shortage worsened by Russia's export ban and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
The lone bearish view is explicitly conditional on the Strait of Hormuz reopening — a mirror scenario, not a true disagreement.