Published oil research is unusually one-sided this week: nearly every voice sees crude grinding higher, with only a few tactical dissenters.
The driver almost every analyst points to is geopolitical — Houthi tanker attacks in the Red Sea, the risk of a direct US–Iran clash, and the threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade. The consensus view in recent research is that this keeps Brent above $100 with risks skewed higher. Thin global inventories leave little cushion for a supply shock, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries plus Caspian pipeline disruptions are cited as reinforcing the squeeze. One strand of research also argues data-center power demand is a structural tailwind beyond the current crisis.
On price paths, several published models suggest Brent could add $7–8 per barrel for each additional month of disruption, with scenarios reaching $114–$120. Refined products are pulled along: distillate cracks are rising on Russia's diesel export ban, and some analysts see US retail gasoline at $4.20–$4.50 if disruptions persist one to two months.
The contrarian thread argues the spike is temporary — that high prices themselves force diplomatic de-escalation, implying a durable decline if talks progress. That's a disagreement on duration, not direction.