Oil markets are bracing for sustained pressure, with the published research consensus tilting firmly bullish on Brent and WTI in the near term.
The dominant driver, cited across nearly every research note this week, is disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes tied to the US-Iran conflict and Houthi tanker attacks. Analysts point out Brent has already broken above $90–$100/bbl, global strategic reserves are depleted, and insurance and freight costs are pushing refined-product prices higher. One thread of research highlights knock-on tightness in Asian naphtha, jet fuel and gasoil as Middle East feedstock flows shrink — with Japanese naphtha premiums jumping from low single digits into the high teens.
On specific targets, one camp projects Brent averaging $110/bbl through 2026 before easing to $80 in 2027. Another pegs a $20 war premium in WTI right now, with $150 as a tail risk if infrastructure is hit. Structural bulls argue years of underinvestment mean a price floor even after geopolitical risk fades.
Not everyone agrees on the medium term. A contrarian view sees WTI drifting to the low $70s by 2028 as disruptions normalize.