Oil analysts are sharply split on where crude goes next, and the divide is really about timing and scenarios, not fundamentals.
The published research consensus is that US-Iran de-escalation has pulled Brent from above $100 toward $90, with Oman's mediation, depleted US munitions, and a reported Iranian pause in attacks reinforcing the move. One camp of analysts also points to a steep drop in China's June oil imports as an added drag.
A contrarian thread argues the ceasefire is fragile. Researchers in this camp warn that any renewed hostilities or a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could send Brent back above $100 quickly, with some flagging $120 as a next-quarter possibility if disruptions persist. Survey-based forecasts sketch a calmer medium-term path: WTI drifting up to roughly $80 by end-2026 before easing to $70 by end-2027.
Some recently published views also highlight gasoline as an upside risk if Middle East tensions flare, and one strategic call sees the WCS-WTI discount narrowing by up to $3 once a proposed Alberta West Coast pipeline opens in the early 2030s.