Published research on oil is almost uniformly bullish right now — the debate is about how far and how long, not direction.
The common thread across recent research is geopolitical supply risk stacking up simultaneously: US strikes on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz near shutdown, Houthi attacks on Red Sea and Black Sea shipping, and suspended Kazakh loadings at Russia's CPC terminal. Analysts argue disruptions are no longer contained to one region. One camp points out OPEC output has fallen to multi-decade lows and models a supply deficit running through 2026. A separate thread flags that US strategic reserves are at historic lows, removing the usual emergency buffer. Researchers also highlight accelerating backwardation across crude, gasoline, and diesel — a market structure that typically signals worsening near-term shortages.
On refined products, the published view is that diesel and gasoline tightness may be even sharper than crude, with jet fuel called out as unusually expensive. Brent is the most crowded bullish call, with WTI close behind.