Published research on crude oil is leaning heavily bullish, with most analysts calling for higher Brent, WTI, and refined product prices.
The consensus argument centers on geopolitics. Researchers point to threats around the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes on Saudi export routes in the Red Sea, and ongoing US-Iran tensions as squeezing effective supply and lifting the risk premium across crude benchmarks. Some recently-published views highlight that depleted US strategic reserves leave little cushion against further shocks. Technical work cited in the research shows WTI holding above $80 with strong momentum signals.
Refined products carry their own bullish story. Multiple analyst notes flag diesel and gasoil crack spreads near record highs, driven by Chinese export restrictions on middle distillates and Russian refinery outages, with gasoline tightness stacked on top.
Not everyone agrees. One contrarian thread argues WTI could slide to the low $60s by year-end on oversupply and softer demand. A separate tactical view flags a possible short if Brent rallies into the $87–88 zone.