Crude oil research is almost unanimously bullish right now, with published analysis pointing to further upside in Brent, WTI, and diesel as US-Iran hostilities disrupt Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic.
The core argument across recent research: escalation has effectively halted flows through Hormuz, pushing Brent back above $90/bbl. Analysts note global oil inventories outside China are historically low, amplifying sensitivity to any further disruption. Strategic reserve releases that previously cushioned tightness are winding down, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned "not a drop" will pass through Hormuz — with few vessels willing to try. One camp argues emergency supply levers are now exhausted, leaving the market unusually exposed. An escalation scenario floated in the research targets $100/bbl.
Diesel is flagged as the most vulnerable refined product, with crack spreads already stretched and stockpiles depleted. A contrarian thread sees downside for Russian and Iranian barrels specifically, but only if US sanctions expand to penalize buyers — which would itself tighten the broader market.