Oil traders spent the week whipsawed between geopolitics and glut fears — and finished leaning higher again.
Early in the week, research houses framed renewed US-Iran hostilities, attacks on Hormuz shipping, and a sharp drop in tanker crossings as reasons Brent risk premia would stick. Analysts flagged a Russian diesel export ban and Ukrainian strikes on refineries — cutting Russian runs from roughly 5.3 to 3.6 million bpd — as fuel for a broader products squeeze, with gasoil cracks already above $60/bbl and fuel oil tightening.
Midweek, a more bearish thread emerged: the US-Iran MoU, a partial Hormuz reopening, aggressive Saudi price cuts to Asia, weak Chinese crude imports and continued SPR releases were cited as capping Brent, with one published path seeing prices drifting to $70/bbl by 2027.
By week's end, the published consensus tilted back up: several notes argued oil is unlikely to break below $70 given persistent Gulf disruption, and fresh reports of Iran declaring Hormuz closed reignited supply-risk pricing.