Oil forecasts are sharply split right now, but refined products tell a cleaner story.
Researchers are divided on crude. One camp of analysts argues the recent sell-off has opened rare upside with limited downside risk, pointing to Strait of Hormuz threats, reserve rebuilding, and structural tightness. Some published views see WTI climbing toward $93 by Q2 2026, and a contrarian thread argues the energy transition paradoxically extends oil demand for decades.
The bearish case is equally serious. Other analysts flag Saudi Aramco's record price cuts to Asia and Middle East producers fighting for market share. Several tie the recent reversal to the US–Iran ceasefire and Hormuz reopening — though some explicitly warn that view depends on the truce holding. One published outlook sees Brent slipping near-term on glut narratives and SPR releases before recovering in the second half.
On refined products, the consensus is tighter and firmly bullish: Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and export bans are squeezing diesel, fuel oil, and gasoline supply globally.