Published oil research this week leans firmly bullish on crude and refined products, with US-Iran escalation and Strait of Hormuz disruption risk cited as the dominant driver.
Most analysts covering the space argue the geopolitical risk premium is real and sticky: tanker data shows shipping slowdowns, oil options volatility has spiked (OVX above 50), and a renewed conflict backdrop has erased earlier ceasefire optimism. A separate strand of research flags refined product tightness independently — Russia's diesel export ban and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have pushed the gasoil crack above $60/bbl. Some strategists frame the Hormuz issue as a structural, long-lived supply-chain risk rather than a passing spike.
The genuine debate is on the cyclical horizon. One camp of published forecasts sees Brent drifting to roughly $80 in Q3 2026 and $70 by 2027, assuming Gulf supply recovers and Chinese demand stays soft. A contrarian thread argues the Hormuz risk is durable and keeps prices bid, with conditional scenarios testing $100 if disruptions intensify.
One nuance worth flagging: research on US pump prices suggests retail gasoline may still drift lower as wholesale markets normalize — a reminder retail lags crude both ways.