Published research this week leans heavily bearish on crude, with most analysts expecting Brent and WTI lower across short, medium, and longer horizons.
The core argument from the research consensus: normalization of Strait of Hormuz flows after the US-Iran peace deal is unwinding the geopolitical risk premium that had propped up prices. One energy research desk now sees a market glut this year, cutting Brent to roughly $70–$80/bbl from earlier forecasts near $100. A longer-horizon view flags structural demand destruction from electrification, plus the UAE's planned OPEC exit and push toward five million barrels per day of capacity by 2027–2028, as reinforcing the oversupply story. Other analysts note oil and diesel costs have already dropped materially and should stay subdued.
Refined products look more mixed. Researchers see European high-sulfur fuel oil as bearish on ample supply, while very-low-sulfur fuel oil stays firm on summer demand. One camp expects gasoline cracks to normalize lower; another argues diesel cracks near $60/bbl hold until Middle East refining recovers.
A contrarian thread argues Brent is below fair value, with heavy speculative shorts setting up a $5–$15/bbl squeeze once Chinese buying returns.