Published research this week leans bearish on crude, though the consensus isn't unanimous.
The dominant view among researchers is that Brent and WTI will stay under pressure in the near term. The reasoning: the Strait of Hormuz reopening after the US-Iran deal, Saudi and UAE exports recovering, more Iranian barrels reaching market, and Russian flows partially returning. Several analysts also flag the front of the Brent curve slipping into contango — a technical signal that prompt supply is running ahead of demand. Ongoing US strategic reserve releases reinforce the picture. Some argue this all hinges on the Gulf ceasefire holding.
A contrarian thread pushes back: one camp argues current prices understate physical tightness, pointing to low inventories, summer demand, and expected reserve rebuilding, with a call for Brent near $80 by year-end before a strategic decline into 2027. On refined products, one published view sees jet fuel extending its recent 26% monthly drop as the geopolitical premium unwinds.