Oil forecasts are sharply split — and the disagreement is really about timeframe.
The near-term bearish view, held by several research shops, points to Brent falling more than 20% in June after the US–Iran memorandum reopened Strait of Hormuz shipping. Iranian and Russian exports are recovering, geopolitical risk premiums are fading, and one widely-cited forecast has been cut to the mid-$80s Brent for the year.
A contrarian thread of recent research argues the opposite: the conflict drained global inventories at a record pace, and the restocking cycle — combined with still-elevated geopolitical risk — could push WTI back toward $85–$90.
On refined products, some analysts see middle distillate margins staying firm, especially if Russian diesel export restrictions hold, and US retail gasoline unlikely to drop soon given fat refining margins. Others disagree and would short WTI bounces above $72, targeting $65–$67.
The real tension isn't contradiction — it's horizon. Tactical bears (weeks to quarters) versus cyclical bulls betting on inventory rebuild through year-end.