Published research is leaning bearish on oil as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium fades.
Most analysts tracking the US-Iran ceasefire and the gradual reopening of Hormuz argue the geopolitical premium that lifted prices earlier in 2026 is draining out. One research note highlights that speculative net long positions in WTI and Brent have collapsed 68% from March highs, with short bets near record levels.
On price paths, one published view sees Brent sliding from around $73 to $69 through 2027. Another forecasts Brent averaging $86 in Q3, $80 in Q4, exiting 2026 near $78, then dropping to about $64 in 2027. Tactical calls target the $65–$67 range, with shorts recommended on bounces above $72.
A contrarian thread argues the market is too complacent — speculator positioning is the lightest since late 2025, suggesting upside is mispriced. A separate cyclical view sees a rebound to $80 in Q4 as strategic reserves run down.
One divergence to watch: researchers flag that Russian diesel export disruptions could keep refined product cracks firm even as crude softens.